BitGou: Thursday Briefing: Fed tightening a sign to get the 'heck out' of U.S. stocks

Thursday, January 27, 2022

by Linda Noakes

Hello

Here's what you need to know.

The Fed is likely to hike rates in March, Russia sees some room for dialogue on Ukraine, and expats head for the exit as Singapore's COVID controls bite. Plus, who owns Scotland? - we look at the millionaires buying up the Highlands.

Today's biggest stories

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

BUSINESS

U.S. stock markets, after enjoying their best three-year run in more than two decades, may soon have to cede the top spot. With the Fed preparing to raise interest rates for the first time in almost four years, capital is starting to fan out of rate-sensitive U.S. shares into other parts of the world where markets are cheaper and potentially more resilient. “What it means is get the heck out of the United States,” said Mike Kelly, head of global multi-asset at PineBridge Investments.

U.S. economic growth likely accelerated in the fourth quarter as businesses replenished depleted inventories to meet strong demand for goods, helping the nation to log its best performance in nearly four decades in 2021.

Deutsche Bank delivered its most profitable year in a decade on the back of a dealmaking bonanza, strengthening Chief Executive Christian Sewing's hand as he fine tunes a new strategy and targets for the years ahead in March.

Samsung Electronics said it aims to win a bigger share of the smartphone market this year with more 5G-capable models, and pointed to a possible price rebound for its flagship memory chips as early as the first half.

Tesla's most important products this year and next will not be cars, CEO Elon Musk said, but software that drives them autonomously and a humanoid robot the company expects to help out in the factory.

A Russian army service member jumps off an armored personnel carrier during drills at the Kuzminsky range in the southern Rostov region, Russia, January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

WORLD

Russia said the United States had shown it was not willing to address Moscow's main security concerns, set out during their standoff over Ukraine, but that both sides had an interest in continuing dialogue. So what are NATO's next steps if Russia invades Ukraine?

Nuclear-armed North Korea fired what appeared to be two short-range ballistic missiles, drawing condemnation from the United States for what would be the sixth round of missile tests this month.

A fourth round of voting to elect a new Italian president headed for failure after the main political blocs decided not to present any candidates as they struggled to agree on a mutually acceptable figure for the powerful role.

Afghanistan is "hanging by a thread," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the Security Council, calling for countries to authorize all transactions needed to carry out humanitarian activities in the Taliban-ruled state.

Indian police have detained six people in a crackdown on illegal immigration after four Indians were found frozen to death near the border between the United States and Canada last week, officials said. Hundreds of Indians, mostly from the western states of Punjab and Gujarat, attempt to cross the U.S.-Canada border each year.

U.S.

Liberal U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer plans to retire, giving President Joe Biden the opportunity to fulfill a campaign promise to nominate the first Black woman to the nation's top judicial body. But Biden's next nominee is not likely to change the court's rightward push.

A judge imposed a 44-month prison sentence on a man who pleaded guilty to a felony charge after throwing objects at police during last year's attack on the Capitol and boasting about his actions on social media.

Senator Mitt Romney, a leading Republican critic of former President Donald Trump, will help raise money for Representative Liz Cheney, who is fighting for political survival after voting to impeach Trump and contesting his false stolen-election claims.

The Justice Department has filed criminal charges against a man for allegedly selling the gun that another man later used to take hostages at a synagogue in Colleyville, Texas.

Rescue crews recovered one body and hopes dimmed for 38 other people lost at sea over the weekend from a capsized boat off Florida's coast in an incident being treated as an ill-fated human smuggling attempt.

A person wearing a protective face mask walks over Westminster Bridge during morning rush hour in London, January 27, 2022. REUTERS/John Sibley

THE GREAT REBOOT - LIVING WITH COVID

After an uncomfortable but relatively brief return to coronavirus restrictions triggered by the Omicron variant, England is going back to 'Plan A' - learning to live with a disease that is probably here to stay. Work-from-home guidance ended last week, and measures such as mask mandates and COVID passes, also introduced in England last month, lapsed today.

China's 'zero-COVID' stance has put it at odds with the rest of the world and is exacting a mounting economic toll, but an exit strategy remains elusive as authorities worry about the ability of the healthcare system to cope and adapt to new strains. Medical experts believed last year that higher vaccination rates would eventually allow China to relax tough rules on movement and testing as infection rates slow elsewhere - but Omicron dashed those hopes.

Risk-averse Singapore is trying to balance its approach to living with COVID - aiming to protect people in the densely populated island from the disease while reopening its economy and borders to maintain its reputation as a hub for capital and talent. But expats are heading for the exit after two years of mask-wearing, socializing in small groups and travel restrictions.

Hong Kong will cut quarantine for arriving travelers to 14 days from 21, starting from February 5, leader Carrie Lam said, after pressure from finance executives and foreign diplomats, who said the measure was hurting competitiveness.

The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which is dominant in Denmark, appears more contagious than the more common BA.1 sub-lineage but there is no evidence that it causes more disease, Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said in a national address. The BA.1 lineage currently accounts for 98% of all cases globally but in Denmark has been pushed aside by BA.2.