2016年10月10日星期一

Monday Morning Briefing: Sunday Night's Alright for Fighting

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Reuters
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Donald Trump had two objectives last night: 1) He had to turn attention away from his 2005 remarks in which he bragged about his ability to sexually assault women; 2) He had to keep his base from abandoning him the way many in the Republican establishment did over the weekend.

To accomplish these objectives, he turned back to the strategy that got him to the nomination: Red meat. Lots and lots of red meat. Before the debate started, his team broadcast a meeting between Trump and four women who accused Bill and Hillary Clinton of various misdeeds, including Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, Juanita Broaddrick and Kathy Shelton. He also minimized his own words from 2005 as "locker room talk."

And then when the debate started, it was reminiscent of his appearance decades before on World Wrestling - theatrical and full of bombast. He made no concessions to the Republican establishment. He said if he were elected, he'd call for a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton's use of private email servers while she was secretary of state and that she'd end up in prison. Such politicization of the Justice Department was last attempted by Richard Nixon.

There was also this exchange:

Clinton: It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country.

Trump: Because you’d be in jail.

Clinton was not as sharp as she was in the first debate. She got herself tangled up in a discussion about the difference between private and public positions and invoked President Abraham Lincoln and the politicking he needed to do to end slavery. Trump parried effectively saying, "She lied. Now she’s blaming the lie on the late, great Abraham Lincoln."

Digits of the day:

2 percent

Who won? The Wall Street Journal said Trump "found his footing." The New York Times said Trump was better than he was in the first debate and Clinton was worse, but did not declare a winner. A CNN/ORC poll said 57 percent of respondents handed the debate to Clinton and 34 percent called Trump the winner. Betting markets have never been more certain that Clinton will win the election, rising to an 87 percent probability from 80 percent before the weekend began. Finally, the Mexican peso – Reuters' favorite financial metric for the election – rose as much as 2 percent overnight, the logic being the peso strengthens the less likely Trump wins the election.


Going to the chapel

Women gather to break the Guinness world record for the most people dressed as brides, in Suzhou, China, Oct. 7, 2016.


Around the world

  • In towns across the ethnically mixed ribbon of land that divides the autonomous Kurdish area in the north of Iraq from the Arab-majority part in the south, the Kurds are expanding their territory. As the peshmerga – the Kurds' fighting force – has battled Islamic State, many Arabs have been forced from their homes. Ordinary Kurds have come in behind, seizing property, destroying buildings, and grabbing farmland. In total, Kurds have increased the size of the region they control in Iraq by around 40 percent since 2014.
  • Priests from the Philippines' Roman Catholic Church, an institution that helped oust two of the country's leaders in the past, say they are afraid and unsure how to speak out against the war on drugs unleashed by new President Rodrigo Duterte. In interviews with Reuters, more than a dozen clergymen in Asia's biggest Catholic nation said they were uncertain how to take a stand against the thousands of killings in a war that has such overwhelming popular support.
  • The Obama administration went ahead with a $1.3 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia last year, despite warnings from some officials that the United States could be implicated in war crimes for supporting a Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen that has killed thousands of civilians.

Around Wall Street

  • British-born Oliver Hart and Finnish-born Bengt Holmstrom won the 2016 Nobel Economics Prize for their contributions to contract theory, helping the understanding of issues like the performance-based pay for top executives.
  • Deutsche Bank shares fell more than 3 percent after Chief Executive John Cryan failed to secure a speedy deal with the U.S. Department of Justice over the weekend over the bank's sale of mortgage-backed securities.
  • Samsung suspended production of its flagship Galaxy Note 7 smartphones, after reports of fires in replacement devices added to the tech giant's recall crisis.
  • Central banks' warnings that there are limits to what they can do to bolster the sputtering world economy could suggest they are about to pull back and pass the baton to governments. But a new tone in the debate among policymakers points in a different direction: Rather than retreat, central banks are preparing for the day they may need to do more, even at the risk of antagonizing politicians who argue they already have too much power.

Around the country

  • Residents of the southeastern United States ravaged by Hurricane Matthew turned their focus on Monday toward recovery and clean-up, but officials in several states warned that deadly flooding could continue as swollen rivers crest in the coming days.
  • John Felix, the suspect arrested in the killing of two California police officers, had high-capacity ammunition magazines and concealable soft body armor when he was captured, law enforcement authorities said. He was taken into custody by a SWAT team in Palm Springs, California, early Sunday morning after an hours-long standoff. The officers came under fire soon after arriving at the residence in response to a call from a woman who said her son was causing a disturbance, police said.

Today's reason to live

Art Brut - Fight

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