2016年12月12日星期一

Monday Morning Briefing: Trump ratchets up trade tensions with China

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China said the United States puts international relations at risk if President-elect Donald Trump doesn't honor the "One China" policy that asserts Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. Trump upended nearly four decades of policy by accepting a phone call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen earlier this month. He doubled down in an interview yesterday with Fox News Sunday.

"I fully understand the 'one China' policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade." – Donald Trump, Dec. 11, 2016

 

"Upholding the 'one China' principle is the political basis for developing China-U.S. ties. If this basis is interfered with or damaged then the healthy development of China-U.S. relations and bilateral cooperation in important areas is out of the question." – Geng Shuang, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Dec. 12, 2016.


Digits of the day

97 percent

On Wednesday, we find out how the U.S. election affects the Federal Reserve's view of the country's economic outlook. Fed fund futures show a 97 percent probability that the Fed will lift rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day policy meeting. But the market will be looking for clues to the pace of future rate cuts.


The Russian-backed Syrian army made sweeping advances in Aleppo, raining fire on rebels and pushing them to the brink of collapse in a shrinking enclave packed with civilians.


Be good for goodness sake!

A man dressed as Santa Claus relieves himself during the Santacon event in London, Dec. 10, 2016. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls 


Around Wall Street

  • Oil prices jumped as much as 6.6 percent in the first trading session after OPEC nations reached a production cut deal with other nations, namely Russia. Fifteen years ago, Russia broke promises to cut output in tandem with OPEC.
  • Trump is stacking his trade transition team with veterans of the U.S. steel industry's wars with China, signaling a more aggressive approach to complaints of unfair Chinese trade practices. China has been criticized for subsidizing exports and blocking imports, and no one knows that better than the U.S. steel industry which has brought 16 trade actions against China in the last three years. Led by Wilbur Ross, a billionaire steel investor and Trump's nominee for commerce secretary, the team is expected to help shift the focus toward enforcement actions aimed at bringing down the U.S. trade deficit.
  • The Bank of Japan is likely to give a more upbeat view of the economy at next week's rate review, as a pick-up in emerging Asian demand and positive signs in private consumption improve prospects for an export-driven recovery. Any upgrade would reinforce market expectations that the central bank, after failing to jolt Japan out of deflation with years of massive monetary easing, will hold off on expanding stimulus measures in the coming months.

Around the country

  • Hey New Yorkers, if you think West Side Highway traffic is bad, you may have three more years of it if a multibillion-dollar train tunnel connecting New York with New Jersey goes through. The tunnel is a marquee component of Amtrak's $24 billion Gateway Project to repair and expand the heart of the critical and lucrative U.S. northeast transportation corridor.
  • Trump's rejection this weekend of intelligence analysts' conclusion that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help him win the White House is the latest in a string of conflicts between Trump and the intelligence community he will command.
  • The central question facing Exxon Mobil Chief Executive Rex Tillerson if he becomes secretary of state is whether a lifelong oil man with close ties to Russia can pivot from advancing corporate interests to serving the national interest. The Kremlin is a fan of Tillerson.

Around the world

  • Japan and China are arguing about military flights over one another's airspace. China accused Japanese F-15 fighters of conducting "dangerous and unprofessional" exercises near Chinese aircraft in the Miyako Strait, which separates two Japanese islands. China responded by scrambling jets in the strait. Japan denied doing anything wrong.
  • A bombing at Cairo's largest Coptic cathedral killed at least 25 people and wounded 49, many of them women and children attending Sunday mass, in the deadliest attack on Egypt's Christian minority in years.
  • An offshoot of the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for twin bombings that killed 38 people and wounded 155 outside an Istanbul soccer stadium, an attack for which the Turkish government vowed vengeance.

Today's reason to live

Pulsars – Tunnel Song

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