BitGou: Thursday Morning Briefing: South Africa 59% excess deaths imply hidden COVID-19 toll

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South Africa’s 59% excess deaths imply hidden COVID-19 toll

South Africa witnessed some 17,000 extra deaths from natural causes, or 59% more than would normally be expected, between early May and mid-July, scientists said, suggesting many more people are dying of COVID-19 than shown in official figures. New data by the South African Medical Research Council, released overnight, showed that just in the week to July 14 - the latest figures available - there was an excess of 5,022 deaths by natural causes, about half more than usual.

Africa’s most industrialized nation is in the middle of a runaway epidemic of the coronavirus, with cases increasing by more than 10,000 a day and the current total just shy of 400,000. But its recorded death toll has so far been low, at 5,940 deaths, or less than 1.5% of cases.

U.S. Senate Republicans, White House cite early progress on coronavirus aid bill
Leading U.S. Senate Republicans and the White House said they had hammered out agreements in principle on portions of a potential coronavirus-response bill, which could be presented to Democrats as early as this week as lawmakers race to pass legislation by the end of July. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters there was an agreement on sending another round of direct-payment checks to Americans to help them get through economic woes created by the worsening pandemic.

Siemens to roll out flexible working app for 100,000 staff
Siemens is rolling out its Comfy mobile phone app to hundreds of its offices around the world to help staff safely return to the office after the coronavirus shutdown. More than 100,000 staff in 30 countries will get access to the app, which gives data on occupancy levels and updates on the local COVID-19 situation so they can comply with physical distancing regulations.

COVID-induced khat shortage adds to Somalia’s health woes
In sweltering Mogadishu, Sharif Ahmed, 22, tried to attack relatives and neighbors, resulting in an emergency trip to a psychiatric hospital in handcuffs. He is suffering withdrawal from the narcotic leaf khat. Somalia shut down flights in late March to curb the spread of the new coronavirus, meaning the drug could no longer be imported by air from Kenya. That affected users, causing some to go for long periods without sleep. The price of khat surged when the flights were stopped, putting it out of reach for most users and straining resources at Mogadishu’s Habeeb Psychiatric Emergency Hospital.

Reducing Corporate America’s real-estate footprint
A Reuters analysis of quarterly earnings calls over the past week revealed more than 25 large U.S. companies planned to downsize their office space in the year ahead, moves designed to reduce the second-largest expense after payrolls at corporations. Reductions in office spending could likely be followed by layoffs and investments in technology that should help improve productivity, said Bill McMahon, chief investment officer of active equity strategies at Charles Schwab.

From Breakingviews - Corona Capital: Consumer cheer, Roche, South Korea.
Unilever and Pernod Ricard prove more resilient than investors had expected, and South Korea’s first recession in nearly two decades may be mercifully short. Catch up with the latest financial insights.

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Emerging from lockdown

U.S. coronavirus cases were approaching 4 million, with over 2,600 new cases every hour on average, the highest rate in the world, according to a Reuters tally. Infections in the United States have rapidly accelerated since the first case was detected on Jan. 21. It took the country 98 days to reach 1 million cases. It took another 43 days to reach 2 million and then 27 days to reach 3 million. It has only taken 16 days to reach 4 million at a rate of 43 new cases a minute.

Track the coronavirus in the U.S.

The U.S. government has set a benchmark for COVID-19 vaccine pricing in a $2 billion deal with Pfizer and German biotech BioNTech that will likely pressure other manufacturers to set similar prices, industry analysts told Reuters. The deal, which is contingent on an approvable product, secures enough vaccine to inoculate 50 million Americans for about $40 a person, or about the cost of annual flu shots, and is the first to provide a direct window into likely pricing of successful COVID-19 vaccines.

U.S. eviction bans are ending. That could worsen the spread of coronavirus. As the coronavirus began to shut down large swaths of the U.S. economy in March, spiraling millions of Americans into unemployment, a patchwork of state and federal eviction bans were enacted to keep people in their homes. Now those protections are vanishing. Moratoriums have already expired in 29 states and are about to lapse in others. On Friday, a federal stay, which protects roughly one-third of American renters who live in buildings with mortgages backed by the federal government, will run out unless Congress acts fast.

California overtook New York as the worst-hit state for coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters tally of county data. Total cases in the most populous U.S. state rose by 12,112 on Wednesday to a total of more than 421,000, the biggest single-day increase since the pandemic started. If California were a country, it would rank fifth in the world for total cases behind only the United States, Brazil, India and Russia.

Top News

The mayor of Portland, Ted Wheeler, was stung by tear gas after he joined demonstrators protesting against racial injustice and police brutality. Protests have rocked Portland every night for weeks, with security forces often tear-gassing and clubbing demonstrators. Visiting the protest site, Wheeler was jeered at by some demonstrators. They said he should have done more to protect Portland’s citizens. However, as he stood among the crowd outside Portland’s Justice Center, Wheeler was himself affected by tear gas. Video footage showed him coughing.

Democrats are mounting their most extensive voter protection effort ever to gird for what Joe Biden called his biggest fear: the prospect that President Donald Trump will try to interfere with the Nov. 3 election or refuse to accept its outcome. Interviews with more than a dozen party officials reveal how Democrats, in coordination with Biden’s presidential campaign, are preparing for fights over absentee ballots, potential voting recounts and the possibility that Trump’s Republican supporters will seek to intimidate voters at the polls.

China warned it will be forced to respond after the United States ordered the shutdown of its Houston consulate, a move the Chinese Foreign Ministry said had “severely harmed” relations. Washington gave China 72 hours to close the consulate “to protect American intellectual property and Americans’ private information”, marking a dramatic escalation of tension between the world’s two biggest economies.

China threatened to withdraw its recognition of British National Overseas passports held by residents of Hong Kong, in retaliation for the former colonial ruler’s policy of easing their path to citizenship.
Starting from January 2021, those in Hong Kong with such status would be able to apply for special visas to live in Britain that could eventually confer citizenship, the UK interior minister said this week.

Follow the money

Southwest and American slow quarterly cash burn but warn demand has stalled

Southwest Airlines and American Airlines each slowed their cash burn over the second quarter but warned that demand had stalled as COVID-19 cases spike, prompting Southwest to rethink the number of flights it had planned to add in August and September.

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Big Tech CEOs ready defenses for U.S. Congress hearing into their growing power

The chief executives of four of the largest U.S. tech companies plan to deflect criticism next week in a Congressional hearing into their use of market power to hurt rivals by saying they themselves face competition and by debunking claims they are so dominant.

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'Please mine more nickel,' Musk urges as Tesla boosts production

Tesla boss Elon Musk urged miners to produce more nickel, a key ingredient in the batteries that power the company’s electric cars, warning the current cost of batteries remained a big hurdle to the company’s growth.

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Twitter shares rise on record yearly growth in daily users

Twitter reported its highest-ever yearly growth of daily users who can view ads, beating analysts’ estimates on usage. Twitter’s average monetizable daily active users increased 34% year over year to 186 million, above analysts’ estimate of 176 million.

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