Diplomats, economists and analysts expect Xi Jinping to consolidate his grip on power
Saturday, October 15, 2022 |
Xi Jinping looks set to consolidate his grip on power, Liz Truss forges ahead with a new finance minister, central banks face a black hole, and more. |
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A visitor stands near a screen showing Xi Jinping at the Museum of the Communist Party of China in Beijing, October 13, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo |
- Weekend in Beijing: It's hard to find a China watcher who thinks President Xi Jinping won't keep his grip on power as the Communist Party meets for its weeklong congress on Sunday. Few expect a third Xi term to deviate from policies he and the party have established as priorities, even if there are many reasons why change might be essential.
- The forecast: Expect a high-pressure front of maritime and meteorological metaphors for difficult conditions. China watchers want to know how Xi will steer the country through youth unemployment, high debt, the carnage of the property-development crisis and the balance between managing COVID and economic health.
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- The first 37 days: Liz Truss fired her finance minister after recalling him from IMF meetings in Washington. Kwasi Kwarteng's economic package, including big tax cuts and deregulation to shock the economy out of stagnant growth, instead shocked world markets and the UK public.
- The next ?? days: Truss, who campaigned on the policies in the economic package, needs to find public-spending cuts to appease investors and get through a House of Commons vote, or else she risks bringing the government down. Jeremy Hunt, the new finance minister, warned that some taxes will have to go up.
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- What the Jan. 6 committee did: Seven Democrats and two Republicans voted 9-0 in favor of subpoenaing Donald Trump to provide documents and testimony under oath in connection with the storming of the Capitol.
- What comes next: The committee should issue the subpoena within the week. If Trump ignores it, the House of Representatives must vote on whether to make a criminal referral to the Justice Department, though lawmakers won't meet again until the Nov. 8 midterm elections are done.
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- The schedule: Russia should be finished calling up reservists in two weeks, promising an end to a divisive mobilization that has seen hundreds of thousands of men summoned to fight in Ukraine and huge numbers flee the country.
- In the meantime: A Western official said some of the newly mobilized Russian troops were already on the battlefield taking casualties, and that their presence was unlikely to turn the tide.
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- Event horizon: Central banks trying to fight inflation with higher interest rates and other tightening measures are meddling with the primal forces of nature, specifically a financial black hole, Breakingviews columnist Edward Chancellor writes.
- What now, if one can ask that question in a black hole: "I think it's almost inevitable that the central banks, led by the Fed, will soon have to give up their policy of tightening, and put their rate hikes on hold," Chancellor says.
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Here are some other stories that caught our attention: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard favors front-loading rate increases now, how Britain's pension schemes became a trillion-pound gamble, Wall Street banks' profits slide, and Europeans could be forgiven for praying to the weather gods for a mild winter. |
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