| By Derek Caney (@stax920)
"It's already over," Donald Trump said on Fox News Sunday of the race for the Republican presidential nomination. If he wins Indiana tomorrow, he will eventually reach the coveted 1,237 delegates to clinch, he says. Is he right? Well… Digits of the day: The most recent poll, from NBC/WSJ/Marist, has Trump opening up a 15 point lead in Indiana, his widest so far in state polling. Other polls from last week covering similar time frames show a narrower race but still show Trump in the lead. The RealClear Politics average is Trump by 4 points. FiveThirtyEight.com's weighted polling average gives Trump an 8 point lead. Indiana is a winner-take-most state with 57 delegates up for grabs. Trump has 996 already. If Trump wins Indiana cleanly and he does as well as the polls expect in California and New Jersey, that brings him to somewhere between 1,215 and 1,230 delegates. And that assumes that Trump wins zero delegates in proportional states such as West Virginia, Oregon and Washington, which frankly is pretty unlikely. And then you'd have to assume that the Republican Party would go to war over a shortfall of 7 to 22 delegates. Or, you're waiting for Trump to do something so outrageous that he loses California and New Jersey between now and June 7 – and please, consider the context of what we've seen and heard in the campaign so far when you make those calculations. At which point, if you still think a contested convention is possible, well, we can't say you're wrong. But you're kind of in the territory of "it's so crazy it just might work!"
Quotes of the day:
Where we stand in Syria:
"We're getting closer to a place of understanding." – John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State "The world is not going to allow them to get away with this." – Adel al-Jubeir, Saudi Foreign Minister, referring to air strikes that hit a hospital in Aleppo last week. "…regime of calm…" – Syrian government
The financial engineering of master limited partnerships has enabled some very wealthy energy investors to do very well during the recent slump in oil prices. If you're a large shareholder or a private equity firm backing one of these companies, such as Energy Transfer Equity or Plains All American, you walked away with hundreds of millions of dollars, even as the price of oil cratered nearly 60 percent in the last two years. If you were a small investor or a limited partner, well, you got soaked.
Around Wall Street - Goldman Sachs, banker to the world's elite, may be making room for the Little People by teaming up with small brokerages and wealth management firms to lend money to their clients. The idea is for Goldman to reach a big set of borrowers, in the U.S. and possibly abroad, without having to acquire them through a merger or build relationships one by one.
- Halliburton called off its $28 billion deal to buy rival Baker Hughes after opposition from U.S. and European antitrust regulators, who objected to the No. 2 and No. 3 oilfield services companies combining.
- Australian tech entrepreneur Craig Wright told the BBC he was the creator of bitcoin after years of speculation about a person who until now has gone by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto.
Around the country
I went down to the demonstration to get my fair share of abuse
Police officers detain a protester during anti-capitalist protests following May Day marches in Seattle, Washington, U.S. May 1, 2016. REUTERS/David Ryder - Five Seattle police officers and at least nine protesters were injured, after unruly demonstrators hurled projectiles and Molotov cocktails during May Day protests. Los Angeles fared better with a peaceful protest against Donald Trump's anti-illegal immigration platform.
- A CSX freight train derailed in northeastern Washington, spilling hazardous material near a subway station and disrupting commuter rail and long-distance Amtrak passenger trains but causing no injuries.
- President Obama took plenty of shots at Donald Trump and the Republicans in his final nerd prom, um, we mean White House Correspondents Dinner. You can watch some of the highlights here:
Around the world - Turkish artillery and drones taking off from southern Turkey struck Islamic State targets in Syria, killing 34 militants, the Turkish military said.
- India and the United States are in talks to help each other track submarines in the Indian Ocean, a move that could further tighten defense ties between New Delhi and Washington as China steps up its undersea activities.
- Astronomers have found a first-of-its-kind tailless comet whose composition may offer clues into long-standing questions about the solar system's formation and evolution. The so-called "Manx" comet, named after a breed of cats without tails, was made of rocky materials that are normally found near Earth. Most comets are made of ice and other frozen compounds and are formed in solar system's frigid far reaches.
Today's reason to live The Replacements – Never Mind |
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