2016年6月27日星期一

Monday Morning Briefing: The Brexit hangover

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Reuters
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"Here they are again, folks! These wonderful, wonderful kids! Still struggling! Still hoping! As the clock of fate ticks away, the dance of destiny continues! The marathon goes on, and on, and on! HOW LONG CAN THEY LAST?" – They Shoot Horses, Don't They, 1969

 

Now, Britain has to figure out how it can extricate itself from the European Union, while honoring the promises Brexit proponents made to their voters without trashing its economy and taking the rest of the world with it. Or they could – not. Here are 10 different ways Brexit can go, some more likely than others.

Digits of the day:

 

The markets are a little more orderly this morning. The British pound is taking another hit and the FTSE is down another 1.7 percent, but most other markets are subdued. But we'll see where things go when the U.S. markets open.

  • The British pound is down 3.5 percent against the dollar, following an 8 percent whacking on Friday and it's still hovering near its lowest level since 1985.
  • The euro is down 1 percent.
  • The FTSE's loss comes after a 3 percent drop on Friday (although at one point, the index was down as much as 8.7 percent).
  • Dow Jones futures are down 124 points (0.7 percent), after a 600 point drop on Friday.
  • Ten-year treasury notes are up 1 percent.
  • Brent crude oil is down 1 percent.
  • And gold is up 1 percent. On Friday, it hit its highest level since March 2014.

We'll get a sense of how far the European turmoil reaches when the President Obama meets with the leaders of Canada and Mexico at the so-called Three Amigos trade summit this week. In addition to Brexit, protectionist promulgations from Donald Trump and Obama's efforts to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership will also factor into the talks. It's also worth mentioning that only one-in-four Canadians say that the existing North American Free Trade Agreement is good for their country and more than a third want it renegotiated.

 


The Supreme Court is expected to issue its first major abortion ruling since 2007, in a grand finale to a busy season for the high court. The eight justices will decide whether a Republican-backed 2013 Texas law placed an undue burden on women exercising their constitutional right to abortion.


Around Wall Street

  • Chris Faulkner built a high-profile public persona, raising millions for his oil and gas ventures. But the SEC has alleged that behind the scenes, the Texas oilman cheated investors out of $80 million to fund a "debauched" jet-setting lifestyle.
  • The stress tests created for banks by U.S. regulators after the 2008 financial crisis may prove their worth this week, providing a timely message on banks' hardiness in the midst of turbulence over last week's vote by Britain to leave the European Union.
  • Panama opened the long-delayed $5.4 billion expansion of its shipping canal amid cheering crowds despite a heated battle over billions in cost overruns and looming economic uncertainty in the shipping industry.

Around the country

  • Hillary Clinton will campaign for the first time with liberal Senator Elizabeth Warren in Ohio, an early move to neutralize Republican Donald Trump's appeal in the battleground state. It could also be seen as Warren's audition to be Clinton's running mate.
  • At least 10 people were injured at a rally outside the California state capitol in Sacramento as members of a white supremacist group clashed with counter-protesters.
  • Millions of people draped in the rainbow hues of LGBT pride turned out for parades across the United States, two weeks after a massacre at a Florida nightclub stirred fear and solidarity among lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender Americans.

Participants carry photos of victims killed in the Orlando Pulse nightclub shooting during the annual Pride parade in New York City, June 26, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid 

 


Around the world

  • Israel and Turkey's agreement to normalize ties will boost the Israeli economy, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, while Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan cast it as a step towards improving humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
  • Four suicide bombers killed at least five people and wounded 19 more in a series of attacks in a Lebanese Christian village at the border with Syria. Security sources believe Islamic State was responsible.
  • Twenty-five children were killed in air strikes that hit heavily crowded areas in the eastern Syrian town of al-Quria, according to UNICEF.

Today's reason to live:

Squeeze – When The Hangover Strikes

 

 

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