2016年6月6日星期一

Monday Morning Briefing: Clinton's California problem

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"Everything that I would stand for, he has said it. We found our voice in him." – Nallely Perez, a 24-year-old Bernie Sanders supporter. 

 And so goes the problem for Hillary Clinton. Before the California polls even close tomorrow, she will have clinched the Democratic nomination thanks to the New Jersey primary earlier in the evening. But if she can't win California, the storyline will be that she can't close the deal and that she will be weakened going into the general election against Donald Trump. (Never mind that Barack Obama faced a vigorous challenge in 2008 without being substantially vulnerable in the general election. His challenger? Oh yeah, Hillary Clinton.)

Digit Of The Day

2

The latest poll has Clinton up by 2 points in California. Two weeks ago she was leading by as much as 18 points.


 Iran is ramping up oil exports faster than expected, seeking to make up for lost trade following the lifting of sanctions over its nuclear weapons program. According to shipping data, the country was struggling as recently as April to find tankers willing to ship its oil, due to some restrictions that remain in place. But now, more than 25 European and Asian-owned supertankers are shipping oil. The market, however, is up 1 percent on the weaker dollar and sabotage of Nigeria's oil production.


The Navy slapped a drinking ban on sailors stationed in Japan after police arrested a U.S. sailor on Okinawa on suspicion of drunk driving following a car crash that injured two people. The incident wasn't particularly helpful to relations between the military and Okinawa, since it occurred shortly after an American civilian working for the U.S. military there was arrested for killing and dumping the body of a 20-year-old Japanese woman.


The Greatest

Employees of Joe's Pizza build a makeshift memorial to the late Muhammad Ali near a mural in New York, U.S., June 4, 2016. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson


Around Wall Street

  • Hours before the Federal Reserve Bank of New York approved four fraudulent requests to send $81 million from a Bangladesh Bank account to cyber thieves, the Fed branch blocked those same requests. The hackers made 35 requests, all of which were rejected by the New York Fed because they lacked the proper formatting for the SWIFT network, which is used for international financial transfers. When the hackers tried a second time, 30 of the requests were rejected, but five got through.
  • "Cable Cowboy" John Malone has his eyes on Vodafone in a deal that would create Europe's biggest communications company. But with a market value of $88 billion and a wildly different approach to debt and dealmaking, the British mobile operator is not an easy fit.
  • The U.S. economy's rebound from a weak winter has moved the Federal Reserve closer to raising rates, though last month's poor employment report might give it pause, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said. Tea-leaf readers say that while the Fed is intent on raising rates, it probably won't happen at next week's meeting.

Around the world

  • Islamic State fighters are fleeing the Syrian city of Manbij with their families as U.S.-backed groups advance to within 4 miles in an attack that has killed more than 150 jihadists, a spokesman for the U.S.-backed forces said.
  • Taiwan will not recognize any air-defense zone declared by China over the South China Sea. U.S. officials fear such a declaration, depending on an international court ruling on a case between the Philippines and China. The comments come a month after Taiwan's independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was sworn in, ending eight years of China-friendly Nationalist rule.
  • Former Wall Street investor Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has a narrow but steady lead in Peru's presidential contest with 78 percent of votes counted. His opponent is Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of an imprisoned former authoritarian leader, Fujimori had long been the favorite to win the election, but support for her melted away in the final days of campaigning as Peruvians weighed the legacy of her father, Alberto Fujimori, and fresh scandals involving her close advisers.

Around the country

  • As part of Donald Trump's tirade against a Mexican-American judge presiding over a case involving Trump University, the presumptive Republican nominee said it was also possible that a Muslim judge would be biased against him, because of his call to ban Muslims from entering the country.
  • Corporate income tax revenue has been shrinking for decades and the three main presidential candidates could not differ more dramatically on what to do about it.
  • Tropical Storm Colin is expected to hit Florida's Gulf Coast this afternoon, after drenching the Southeast with thunderstorms over the weekend.

Today's reason to live

Miles Davis – Ali

See you down the road, champ…

 

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