| By Derek Caney
In the last week, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada have gone from solid Hillary Clinton states to coin flips. That's 50 electoral votes. In that same time, Iowa and Ohio have moved from toss-ups to Donald Trump-leaning states. That's another 24 electoral votes. Reuters/Ipsos says Michigan and its 16 electoral votes are too close to call, but the broader polling averages still say Clinton is ahead. Digits of the day 90 percent Where does that leave us? Reuters/Ipsos says Clinton's chances fallen to a 90 percent chance of victory down from 95 percent. Her lead in the popular vote is unchanged at 6 percent, since FBI chief James Comey found a new trove of Clinton emails he wanted to review. Fivethirtyeight, which averages and aggregates polls across the country, estimates that Clinton has 66 percent chance of winning and her lead in the popular vote dwindled to 3 points from 6 points a week ago. So did the FBI crater Clinton's chances? Partly, but not entirely. The fact is Clinton's numbers were starting to tail off anyway after peaking the night of the third debate. As we said earlier this week, this is when the Mexican peso began to weaken right after the third debate. The peso is a financial proxy for the election because of Trump's promises to crack down on trade and migration from Mexico if he wins. Since the third debate, Donald Trump hasn't created any new controversies for himself on the stump. And the sexual misconduct accusations against Trump seem to be a steady smoldering in the election discourse, rather than a raging fire he needs to put out. 
Accusing fingers 
Mannequin limbs are piled outside the Russia's embassy in London as part of a protest against military action in Syria, Nov. 3, 2016. REUTERS/Toby Melville
Around the country - The FBI and U.S. intelligence agencies are examining faked documents aimed at discrediting the Hillary Clinton campaign as part of a broader investigation into what U.S. officials believe has been an attempt by Russia to disrupt the presidential election. Senator Tom Carper, a Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Committee, referred one of the documents to the FBI for investigation on the grounds that his name and stationery were forged. In the letter identified as fake, Carper is quoted as writing to Clinton, "We will not let you lose this election." The fake letter could call into question the veracity of other documents that have been disclosed by hackers in recent weeks.
- North Carolina's gubernatorial election is effectively a referendum on the state law that limits rights and protections for gays, lesbians and transgender people. Signed by Republican Governor Pat McCrory in March, the law has been blamed for hundreds of millions of dollars in economic losses and the relocation of major sporting events from the ninth largest U.S. state. And if he loses to Democratic challenger Roy Cooper, LGBT leaders believe elected officials backing such measures in other states will also face greater political risk.
- With marijuana legalization measures on the ballot in nine states, investment opportunities are attracting money from Wall Street, Silicon Valley and publicly traded companies. No, they're not investing directly in marijuana cultivation and sales, but fertilizer, grow lights, software and payroll service are all fair game. No word yet on investments in bongs, bowls, roach clips or Grateful Dead records.
Around the world - Iraqi special forces recaptured six districts of eastern Mosul. Islamic State militants are now almost surrounded in their last stronghold in Iraq, according to the elite Counter Terrorism Service. Iraqi forces may try to push all the way to the Tigris River, which runs through the center of Mosul.
- A tearful and apologetic South Korean President Park Geun-hye said her "heart was breaking" over an influence-peddling scandal that has engulfed her administration, pledging to cooperate with prosecutors in their investigation. Park has faced growing pressure from the public and political opponents to resign. No South Korean president has ever failed to finish their five-year term.
- A car bomb killed eight people and wounded more than 100 in Diyarbakir, southeastern Turkey's largest city, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said, hours after police detained the leaders of the mostly Kurdish region's biggest political party.
Around Wall Street - The British pound had its best week since March on after England's High Court tossed Brexit plans back into the laps of Parliament. The pound rallied 2.5 percent against the dollar on the hopes of a less dramatic withdrawal from the European Union.
- Employers likely stepped up hiring in October and boosted wages for workers, which could effectively seal the case for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The Reuters consensus estimate is an addition of 175,000 nonfarm payrolls in October and an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.
- Agitating top management: not just for activist investors anymore. Some of the more established funds – T. Rowe Price, Neuberger Berman, Franklin Resources, Artisan Partners – are playing a similar role, calling for change at what they believe are underperforming companies.
Today's Reason To Live Yo La Tengo – Big Day Coming |
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