2016年11月9日星期三

Wednesday Morning Briefing: Well – that was unexpected

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Reuters
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Republican Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States, defeating Hillary Clinton, a lifelong politician, defying the steepest of odds, and pulling off one of the most dramatic upsets in the history of American politics.

Not only that, but Republicans maintained their control over the Senate and the House of Representatives. Trump will likely be able to nominate at least two Supreme Court Justices, repeal Obamacare, and dramatically change our relationship with our neighbors and allies. And then there are the campaign promises of a wall to keep Mexican immigrants out and "extreme vetting" of Muslim immigrants.

He rode a wave of anti-establishment sentiment. He seized on a weakness in both major parties: the people left behind by the evaporation of blue-collar manufacturing jobs in the Rust Belt. Trump's protectionist, populist message led to a movement that led to massive upsets in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And when those states went red, Florida and North Carolina, which were thought to be "nice-to-haves" turned out to be "need-to-haves." And Clinton didn't get them.

The circular firing squad that is the Democratic Party this morning will probably discuss whether Clinton took states like Wisconsin and Michigan for granted. They'll likely turn their ire on FBI chief James Comey, who opened up a new review of on newly discovered batch of emails that turned out to be duplicates of old emails. They may also blame third party candidates.

Digits of the day:

74 percent

They will wonder why Clinton won non-whites 74 percent to 21 percent, compared with Obama's 82 percent to 18 percent and 80 percent  to 19 percent margins in 2008 and 2012, respectively – especially when they were supposed to have such an organized and well-funded ground game.


Around Wall Street

  • The markets started to freak out at about 8 p.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures falling as much as 900 points to their lowest point since June, before recovering 600 points. The U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso took a beating. The Nikkei was down 5 percent.
  • Trump's victory throws into question the core assumption in global financial markets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon and follow with further gradual hikes over coming years. Market turmoil has stayed the Fed's hand in the past, including a Chinese stock market slump in 2015 and the aftermath of Britain's vote to leave the European Union last June. Investors have tended to favor Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home and on the world stage.
  • From plush penthouse apartments on the Upper East Side to bars in midtown Manhattan, New York’s financial community watched in stunned dismay. Trump's unpredictable pronouncements and opposition to free-trade agreements have made the real estate mogul unpopular with many financiers, who fear that he could disrupt global trade and damage geopolitical relationships.

Around the world

  • Foreign governments are uncertain how much of Trump's rhetoric will be translated into policy because he has frequently made contradictory statements and provided few details of how he would deal with the world or who he would appoint to key posts.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump via telegram. He added that a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington would serve the interests of both countries.
  • The deployment in South Korea of the U.S. military's missile defense system, designed to counter North Korea's nuclear threat, will go ahead as planned under a Trump administration, the South's ruling party chief said.

Around the country

  • The Republican sweep extended to state houses where they increased their majority of governorships.
  • Canada's main immigration website appeared to crash and New Zealand reported increased traffic to its website for residency visas from U.S. nationals in the hours before Trump surged to victory.
  • A ballot measure to make recreational marijuana legal for adults was headed for approval in California, opening the most populous state to a burgeoning commercial cannabis market in a major victory for supporters of liberalized drug laws.

1,179 days until the 2020 Iowa caucuses – give or take a week or two.


Today's reason to live

Aretha Franklin – Take A Look

 

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